The combined effects of predation, fishing, and ocean productivity on salmon species targeted by marine mammals in the northeast Pacific.

Along the northeast Pacific coast, the salmon-eating southern resident killer whale population (SRKW, Orcinus orca) have been at very low levels since the 1970s. Previous research have suggested that reduction in food availability, especially of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), could be the main limiting factor for the SRKW population. Using the ecosystem modelling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), this study evaluated if the decline of the Pacific salmon populations between 1979 and 2020 may have been impacted by a combination of factors, including marine mammal predation, fishing activities, and climatic patterns. We found that the total mortality of most Chinook salmon populations has been relatively stable for all mature returning fish despite strong reduction in fishing mortality since the 1990s. This mortality pattern was mainly driven by pinnipeds, with increases in predation between 1979 and 2020 mortality ranging by factors of 1.8 to 8.5 across the different Chinook salmon population groups. The predation mortality on fall-run Chinook salmon smolts originating from the Salish Sea increased 4.6 times from 1979 to 2020, whereas the predation mortality on coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) smolts increased by a factor of 7.3. The model also revealed that the north Pacific gyre oscillation (NPGO) was the most important large-scale climatic index affecting the stock productivity of Chinook salmon populations from California to northern British Columbia. Overall, the model provided evidence that multiple factors may have affected Chinook salmon populations between 1979 and 2020, and suggested that predation mortality by marine mammals could be an important driver of salmon population declines during that time.

Requirements and availability of prey for northeastern pacific southern resident killer whales.

The salmon-eating Southern Resident killer whale (SRKW) (Orcinus orca) population currently comprises only 73 individuals, and is listed as 'endangered' under the Species at Risk Act in Canada. Recent evidence suggests that the growth of this population may be limited by food resources, especially Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We present spatio-temporal bioenergetics model for SRKW in the Salish Sea and the West Coast of Vancouver Island from 1979-2020 with the objective of evaluating how changes in the abundance, age-structure, and length-at-age of Chinook salmon populations has influenced the daily food consumption of the SRKW population. Our model showed that the SRKW population has been in energetic deficit for six of the last 40 years. Our results also suggested that the abundance of age-4 and age-5 Chinook salmon are significant predictors of energy intake for SRKW. We estimated that the annual consumption (April-October) of Chinook salmon by the whales between 1979 and 2020 ranged from 166,000 216,300. Over the past 40 years, the model estimated that the contribution in the predicted SRKW diet of Chinook salmon originating from the Columbia River has increased by about 34%, and decreased by about 15% for Chinook salmon stocks originating from Puget Sound. Overall, our study provides an overview of the requirements and availability of prey for SRKW over the last 40 years, while supporting the hypothesis that SRKW were limited by prey abundance in the study period.